![]() ![]() They used to estimate that on average the first full year of sales represented 10% of the peak sales estimate. Peak Sales EstimatesĪs a rule of thumb, analysts for the last two decades have used the first full year of sales to determine the rough peak sales potential of a drug in the USA market.īefore a drug reaches the market, analysts use different metrics like market size, reimbursement rates, and treatment costs to analyze the potential but once in the market, they tweak their predictions based on first full year of sales. But at this point, it appears that Bausch Health Companies will be the winner of all the Trulance upside. And for that reason, I believe that scale is tilted to the upside on this scenario. ![]() ![]() Trulance first full year of sales have already proved that it can achieve blockbuster status. Actually, I had just argued not that long ago that Bausch Health was letting go of the opportunity of the century by failing to partner or acquire Synergy Pharmaceuticals. Right now, Synergy has no leverage to negotiate a good offer for its asset Trulance that has already proved it has the potential to achieve blockbuster status.įor investors in Bausch Health Companies ( NYSE: BHC), this is the news they had been waiting to hear for a long time as the company enters its transformative stage. Synergy lender CRG made a mistake of epic proportions by failing to give Synergy enough room to negotiate a credible partnership or buyout offer. Synergy Pharmaceuticals ( NASDAQ: SGYP-OLD) filed today for bankruptcy and its prospects have been basically ruined. ![]()
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